After a colder-than-average March, things aren’t exactly warming up quickly to start off the month of April. Parts of the southeast were under snowfall warnings over the past weekend, and daytime temperatures still remain below the seasonal average.  

The biggest reason for the stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions has been a low-pressure system that has set itself up in the Hudson Bay/Nunavut area, which sees areas to the west of the low getting rushes of cold air that come in from the Arctic. Natalie Hasell, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, pointed out that the lack of cloud cover at times, particularly at night, has meant it is easy for the heat to escape, resulting in the cold air.  

“The worst would be right before sunrise because that’s the longest time since the sun was last up, so it’s often the overnight temperatures that have been the main thing skewing the average,” Hasell said.  

The forecast, according to Hasell, shows the temperatures could remain below seasonal until the middle of the month, however, there is the chance for some warm-up as early as the weekend. There are a few factors that do play a role in whether or not this will happen, though, including the presence of La Nina or El Nino in the Pacific. 

“We’ve been under La Nina conditions for three years in a row, which is actually kind of rare, by depending on the relative strength of the conditions over the equatorial Pacific, we can see a relationship with the weather we see here, and the cold phase,” Hasell explained.  

The dying down of La Nina could result in what Hasell called neutral conditions – a lot of variability in the highs and lows, with the possibility of storms thanks to the transition that is spring.  

“So, we’ve got snow today – well, since yesterday – and then things tapering off then clearer, warmer weather,” Hasell said. “ It wouldn’t surprise me to see another system go through and things change in both terms of the weather itself and the temperature regime that you’re going to end up in so I would ask that people be prepared for variability.” 

The warmth that will be coming for the weekend, according to the current forecast, could make for things to be a little slick due to the freeze/thaw cycle, with overnight lows continuing to be below 0° but the daytime highs providing for some melting. 

“Road conditions could continue to be affected in this freeze/thaw cycle, so you know, roads, highways, parking lots, sidewalks, potentially very hard to navigate. One should expect delays even if the weather itself is relatively benign.”