When it comes to the weather in Weyburn in November, it feels like everyone is always prepared for the worst. After all, it is the unofficial start of winter, with the possibility of snow, extreme cold, and more. This year, however, has felt, well, off.
The average daytime high this month is 1.9°, and the average overnight low has been -3.6°. To put that into perspective, the 30-year average from Environment Canada, which uses data from 1981-2010, is 0.8° for the high, and -9.1° for the low.
The warmer temperatures, though, aren’t exactly abnormal. In fact, this year has already been cooler than in recent years.
“We can go back, even last year, we had a temperature of 12.6° on November 5th,” explained Justin Shelley. He is a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada. “And in 2020, we had five straight days of at least 10° temperatures, and two of those days actually eclipsed 20°.” The meteorologist also noted while it is warmer than the climatological normal, it isn’t too abnormal.
Part of the reason for the warmer temperatures could be attributed to El Nino, the weather phenomena that can create warm, dry winters on the Prairies.
“Certainly within those global El Nino years, you have those fluctuations day to day, week to week, but we are going to see a pattern change here locally over Western Canada starting later this week and into the weekend, where we’ll see an upper ridge of high pressure move into the southern prairies that will allow for these warmer than normal temperatures to persist into early next week,” Shelley projected.
The temperatures could crack double digits next week, which may feel too warm for this time of year, but one doesn’t have to go back too far to see similar examples. Aside from the mercury breaking the 20° mark in 2020, in 2016 the first 14 days of November were in the double digits, with three days hitting over 20°. The daytime average that year in the month of November was 8.4°, well above seasonal. Coincidentally, 2016 was also the end of a major El Nino event.
When El Nino affects the temperatures in the Prairies, it can bring quite a difference – up to 5° warmer than normal – throughout the winter. It can also be significantly drier than normal as well, however.
“After tomorrow, there’s still a slight chance of some scattered flurries, but after that and into the weekend and early next week, with that upper ridge moving into the area, all of the storm systems are going to be a bit farther north,” Shelley said of the chances of precipitation coming with the warm weather Weyburn and the southeast are expected to experience.
This is Saskatchewan, though, which means things could change rather quickly. Stay up to date with all of the latest weather forecasts by visiting the Discover Weyburn Weather page.