The Water Security Agency is expecting a below-normal runoff for the southeast corner of the province, according to their forecast released Tuesday. A below-normal runoff means there is some runoff expected, but will be below average.  

For Weyburn, Nickle Lake is expected to have a water level of around 562.7 metres, which is just below the normal summer level of 562.8 metres. The level will be just below last year’s peak, which was 563.5 metres, and below the record of 564 metres, which was set in 2011.  

The Souris River basin is expected to have below-normal flows as well. The forecast for the month of March has the river flowing at 15 cubic metres per second near Ralph, below the 25 m³/s average, and below last year’s peak spring flow of 40 m³/s. At Jewel Creek near Goodwater, the flow is expected to be around a third of last year’s, and half of the average, at 2 m³/s, and at the Yellow Grass Ditch, it is forecasted to be 4 m³/s, half of the average flow.  

The snow earlier this month helped to improve the conditions within the Souris River basin, but runoff is still projected to be below normal. The drier conditions have also meant there will likely be no additional releases of water, with only Boundary Reservoir having the potential of filling this spring.  

In terms of water supply, there weren’t any concerns for the southeast raised in the forecast from the WSA, with Nickle Lake just slightly below normal, with Rafferty, Boundary and Grant Devine reservoirs all above normal.  

The long-range forecast is calling for near-normal precipitation in the southeast over the course of the next three months. The 30-year average for Weyburn is 62 millimetres of precipitation. In addition to the precipitation, though, warmer temperatures are also expected in the region.  

The next forecast from the WSA is expected to be delivered in early April unless the spring melt is already underway.